What used to seem like luxury, is now necessity. Foresight matters as risk, uncertainty, surprise, and crisis are increasingly part of the everyday vernacular and are considered a condition of doing business, rather than anomalies.
Foresight is creating the capacity for future savvy, forward leaning strategic intelligence, the “practice of making ‘forward looks’, of anticipating change, or making studies of future possibilities.” The word possibilities matters here, as foresight deals with multiple, alternative futures, none of which can be described with accurate precision—it is about plausibility and not probability. Our methodologies for foresight are participatory and inclusive, often involving broader stakeholders from all levels within an organization or value chain.
Foresight is associated with critical thinking, a systems perspective, interdisciplinary approaches, and the quest to nurture reflexivity, or developing a better sense of one’s self (or organization) in relation to one’s context (or operating environment).
Harvard Business Review deemed Anticipation as one of the “essential skills” of strategic leadership. Recent studies indicate:
- “A study of over 300 global senior executives found that 80% felt their organizations had less capacity for peripheral vision than…needed”
- “2/3 of corporate strategists admitted their organizations had been surprised by up to 3 high impact events in the last 5 years; & 97% said their companies lacked an early warning system to prevent such surprises in the future”
Thus, we help organization cope with high levels of uncertainty, to gain clarity over chaos and drive concrete action when signals are confusing.
There are a variety of foresight methods that we customize based on a solid diagnosis (of the problem), the mutual agreement of a unique purpose (for the work), and with consideration of the need for change/transition/new value creation.
Scenario planning is at the core of what we do, but we also deploy the following foresight methods:
- Visioning- mapping of a desired future
- Roadmapping- plan that matches short term and long term goal towards a desired outcome, often technology focused
- Backcasting- with a vision in place, what steps are needed to get there?
- Design fictions- creating product mock-ups or future service designs to get a more experiential and tangible feel of changing circumstances, technologies and contexts
- Storytelling- using creative methods to map alternative futures
- Learning Journeys- walking tours or visits to places where the future is emerging to get a better sense of possibilities (like the Futurescape City Tours)
“Scenarios are not predictions. They set out what could happen, not what will happen. They should be seen as the starting point for a discussion, not the end point.” (from Rafael Ramirez, Oxford Scenarios Programme)
“Scenarios are stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties” (Selin 2006)
“Scenarios are developed collectively to build shared images of possible futures…scenarios nurture openness to change by allowing more complexity in future states of a system and the environment to be taken into account.” (van der Heijden 1997)
“Scenarios are stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties” (Selin 2006)
“Scenarios are developed collectively to build shared images of possible futures…scenarios nurture openness to change by allowing more complexity in future states of a system and the environment to be taken into account.” (van der Heijden 1997)
"If you don't know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else."
Yogi Berra
Yogi Berra
At CMC, we believe that strategy is the leadership team's work - and strategy work never stops. We help you define and answer the right questions about your environment, your customers, your competitors and your business model to identify what will differentiate you in the market place.
The result is an aligned leadership team, with clear and common messages about what you are doing and why you are doing it.
Strategic Planning
Too often, strategic plans sit on the shelves collecting dust until next year's planning meeting. Clients often tell us it feels like a wasted mental exercise for those involved.
At CMC, our aim is to give your strategic plan "legs" so it has a real impact on reaching your organizational goals. A good strategic plan should be a road map and a filter for decision making.
Once your strategy is developed and aligned, CMC can further assist you in making any organizational changes needed to reach your goals.